765
FXUS64 KSJT 090622
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1222 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- A FREEZE IS ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
- GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RHS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
GUSTY NORTH HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
COLD ADVECTION PREVAILS. WIND SPEEDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
CONTINUE TO SHOW 30-40KTS, SO AS SOME MIXING OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE,
SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL MIX DOWN THIS MORNING. DECREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WEAKENING WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS
TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS
WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN LOWS TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT THE WIND SPEEDS TO DROP OFF RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AND ALLOW A DECENT DROP RIGHT AT 12Z TOMORROW. THUS WILL
UNDERCUT NBM LOWS A FEW DEGREES AND CARRY MOST AREAS IN THE 30-35
DEGREE RANGE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE FACT THAT MOST AREAS
SAW SIMILAR OR EVEN A LITTLE COLDER TEMPERATURES LAST WEEK, WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZE PRODUCTS FOR NOW. IF IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES ARE HEADED INTO THE UPPER 20S, MAY NEED TO REVISIT
THAT AND ISSUE SOMETHING ON THE NEXT SHIFT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT, THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE US WITH A
DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START ON A WARMING TREND AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL
MAKE A RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
BY THE NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. HOWEVER, THIS REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TRACK, IT MAY PROVIDE A VERY LOW
(20%) CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND ACROSS OUR AREA. AGAIN, THIS
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE
REGION. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO BEING POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 62 30 61 45 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 64 32 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 67 33 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 63 31 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 61 32 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 65 35 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 63 30 59 40 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...41
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