805
FXUS64 KSJT 102055
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
255 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RHS TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY, WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND MID MORNING
FARTHER SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MAINLY 20 TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
THE MAIN CONCERN/HAZARD TUESDAY WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, AND ANTICIPATE A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS FALL INTO THE 17 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS IN
THE 70S EXPECTED, RANGING FROM LOWER 70S ALONG I-10 TO UPPER 70S
NORTH OF I-20.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO COME ASHORE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOME CUTOFF
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO OR NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS. THERE
IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL SPEED AND
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN
CHANCES AND AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND OF
20-40% POPS AND HOPE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN
(60S AND 70S FOR HIGHS) FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A
PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CST MON NOV 10 2025
LIGHT WINDS WERE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST THIS MORNING. STRONG GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS 30 KTS AT
KABI, AND 27 KTS AT KSJT AND KBBD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 46 76 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 43 73 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 37 72 46 83 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 37 74 44 79 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 46 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 40 69 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 41 72 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...04
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