459
FXUS64 KSJT 110632
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1232 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
FIRE WEATHER THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM, MAINLY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHARPEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS AND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 20%. RED
FLAG WARNING ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL LEAVE IT GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED, MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PROVIDING A LITTLE DOWNSLOPE AS WELL. HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND LOWER 70S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WIND SPEEDS EASE UP OVERNIGHT BUT STAY IN
THE 5-10 MPH AT LEAST AND THIS WILL AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
THE 70S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO OR NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES
CLOSER TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VERY BREEZY WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 49 79 52 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 73 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 73 45 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 75 43 79 47 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 77 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 70 43 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 73 47 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-
IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-
SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM
GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...41
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