558
FXUS64 KSJT 111715 AAB
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1115 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
FIRE WEATHER THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM, MAINLY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHARPEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS AND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 20%. RED
FLAG WARNING ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL LEAVE IT GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED, MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PROVIDING A LITTLE DOWNSLOPE AS WELL. HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND LOWER 70S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WIND SPEEDS EASE UP OVERNIGHT BUT STAY IN
THE 5-10 MPH AT LEAST AND THIS WILL AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY RETURNING TO
THE 70S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO OR NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND, AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES
CLOSER TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. FOR KABI, WINDS WILL DECREASE
BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
LATE (AFTER 09Z). FOR KSJT/KBBD, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING, AND THEN DROP OFF TO 5-10
KNOTS IN THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KJCT
AND KSOA) CAN EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE KABI TERMINAL MAY HAVE A
WIND SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 76 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 77 46 83 48 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 73 44 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 75 44 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 77 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 72 43 80 48 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 73 47 82 51 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19
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