970
FXUS64 KSJT 111851
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1251 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES (20%-30%)
RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
FIRE WEATHER THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM, MAINLY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL SHARPEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH. DRY AIR MASS REMAINS AND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW 20%. RED FLAG
WARNING ALREADY IN PLACE AND WILL LEAVE IT GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED, MUCH WARMER TODAY WITH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PROVIDING A LITTLE DOWNSLOPE AS WELL. HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND LOWER 70S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. WIND SPEEDS EASE UP OVERNIGHT BUT STAY IN
THE 5-10 MPH AT LEAST AND THIS WILL AGAIN BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
THIS RIDGING, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY, INTO THE 80S,
AND EVEN CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE NEAR OR WARMER THAN CURRENT RECORD HIGHS
AT ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO, SO RECORDS COULD BE TIED, OR SET AT
EITHER LOCATION. ABILENE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF NEW RECORDS BEING
SET, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN THE FORECAST IS 87, AND THE
CURRENT RECORD IS 84, SET IN 1989.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN U. S.
THIS WEEKEND, MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW (20%) PROBABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, IT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE. WITH THE LOW THAT FAR NORTH,
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR OUR AREA, WHICH MAKES
SENSE, AS MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE FARTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE LOW WILL LOWER MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES, COOLING US DOWN
INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KNOTS. FOR KABI, WINDS WILL DECREASE
BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS
LATE (AFTER 09Z). FOR KSJT/KBBD, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 10-12 KNOTS THIS EVENING, AND THEN DROP OFF TO 5-10
KNOTS IN THE POST-MIDNIGHT HOURS. OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS (KJCT AND
KSOA) CAN EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF TO 5 KNOTS OR
LESS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE KABI TERMINAL MAY HAVE A
WIND SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE BY OR SHORTLY
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 49 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 46 83 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 44 83 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 44 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 49 78 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 43 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 47 82 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-
COKE-COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-
MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-
SHACKELFORD-STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19
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