333
FXUS64 KSJT 120616
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1216 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES (20%-30%)
RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VERY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH CONTINUING
ACROSS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. CONTINUED SOUTH WINDS WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH SOME AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO KEEP MIXING GOING AND THUS OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT ANYWHERE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
TONIGHT, A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY, EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. UNDER
THIS RIDGING, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY, INTO THE 80S,
AND EVEN CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE NEAR OR WARMER THAN CURRENT RECORD HIGHS
AT ABILENE AND SAN ANGELO, SO RECORDS COULD BE TIED, OR SET AT
EITHER LOCATION. ABILENE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF NEW RECORDS BEING
SET, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY WHEN THE FORECAST IS 87, AND THE
CURRENT RECORD IS 84, SET IN 1989.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN U. S.
THIS WEEKEND, MAINTAINING SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW (20%) PROBABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, IT WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE. WITH THE LOW THAT FAR NORTH,
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR OUR AREA, WHICH MAKES
SENSE, AS MOST OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE FARTHER
NORTH. HOWEVER, THE LOW WILL LOWER MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS IN
OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD MODERATE TEMPERATURES, COOLING US DOWN
INTO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL STILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGHS, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 79 52 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
SAN ANGELO 81 48 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
JUNCTION 83 50 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNWOOD 79 49 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
SWEETWATER 79 52 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
OZONA 79 47 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
BRADY 81 52 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...42
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