654
FXUS64 KSJT 021907
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
80S.
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A WARM, HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING, THE HI-RES
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RRFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALIZED STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SHOWERS/STORMS
OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT, A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF CONVECTION (ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO
WEST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
SURVIVE AS FAR EAST AS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR
AREA, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD, BUT WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.4 TO 1.6
INCHES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS, AND LOW-LYING OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE CONFINED TO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS MORE ISOLATED FOR
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
SATURDAY MORNING, AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY EVENING.
THE APPROACH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS. WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 80S FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AS AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. SHOULD THIS SETUP COME TO FRUITION, IT WOULD RESULT
IN DWINDLING RAIN CHANCES, LESS DAILY CLOUD COVER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNED TO ALL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY TO MID WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHEN
MVFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KABI. ADDED IN SOME VCSH TO SHOW THE INCOMING
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON, AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL RETURN TO LIGHT AND
(40%-70%) VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 89 69 87 / 10 20 30 40
SAN ANGELO 69 86 67 85 / 20 40 40 40
JUNCTION 68 87 67 86 / 10 40 30 30
BROWNWOOD 69 87 67 85 / 20 20 30 40
SWEETWATER 70 89 67 87 / 10 50 40 40
OZONA 69 86 67 84 / 30 50 30 40
BRADY 68 85 67 84 / 20 20 30 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99
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