648
FXUS64 KSJT 030458
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
80S.
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH A WARM, HUMID
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING, THE HI-RES
MODELS GENERALLY SHOW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RRFS IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT. WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE TYPE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALIZED STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE SHOWERS/STORMS
OCCUR. FOR TONIGHT, A NORTH-SOUTH BAND OF CONVECTION (ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT) IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO
WEST TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY
SURVIVE AS FAR EAST AS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR
AREA, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD, BUT WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY HAVE LOCALIZED DOWNBURST
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.4 TO 1.6
INCHES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY
BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS, AND LOW-LYING OR
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, EXPECT HIGHS TO
BE CONFINED TO MOSTLY THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
SATURDAY, AND THEN INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KSOA
AND KJCT EARLY THIS MORNING. CAMS SHOW MOST OF THIS WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WILL RUN A FEW HOURS OF
THUNDER DOWN THERE AND THEN DRY FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. MODELS
DO SHOW MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AROUND KSJT AND KABI AND WILL RUN A MENTION A PROB30 FOR
THUNDER FOR THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
LOOKS MORE ISOLATED NEAR THE OTHER TERMINALS AND WILL LEAVE OUT A
MENTION FOR NOW. LATER SHIFTS CAN FINE TINE TO ADD OR SUBTRACT A
MENTION OF STORMS AS NEEDED. OTHERWISE, WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SOME MVFR CIGS CREEPING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AFTER SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 89 69 87 / 20 30 30 40
SAN ANGELO 69 86 67 85 / 40 40 30 40
JUNCTION 68 88 67 86 / 40 30 20 20
BROWNWOOD 69 88 68 85 / 20 20 20 30
SWEETWATER 70 89 68 87 / 20 40 50 40
OZONA 69 85 67 84 / 40 50 30 30
BRADY 68 86 67 84 / 30 20 20 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07
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