069
FXUS64 KSJT 031118
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
618 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER MEXICO AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, PRODUCING WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND WILL LEAVE A LARGELY UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY AIR MASS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING TO HELP
DEVELOP STORMS, BUT MUCH LIKE TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE A FEW
OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AROUND THAT WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LOCAL LIFT TO KICK OFF SOME STORMS. MOST OF THE
CAMS SHOW MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT HE RRFS WHICH IS HANDLING
THE CONVECTION TONIGHT PRETTY WELL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION. OVERALL, AREAS WEST HAVE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER POP CHANCES (30-40%) THAN EAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND
EASTERN BIG COUNTRY (20%) BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE BOUNDARIES
BECOME A LITTLE MORE OBVIOUS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT, BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN SOME AREAS THAT SOME STRAY HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE VERY MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
SATURDAY, AND THEN INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE AREA
ARE NOT MOVING CLOSER TO ANY OF THE TERMINALS YET, AND MAY NOT
BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED
TO NEAR KSJT AND MAY BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE CREPT NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID/LATE MORNING TIME FRAME
BEFORE LIFTING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 69 87 70 / 30 30 40 20
SAN ANGELO 86 67 85 68 / 40 30 40 40
JUNCTION 88 67 86 68 / 30 20 20 30
BROWNWOOD 88 68 85 68 / 20 20 30 20
SWEETWATER 89 68 87 68 / 40 50 40 30
OZONA 85 67 84 67 / 50 30 30 60
BRADY 86 67 84 68 / 20 20 30 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...07
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