511
FXUS64 KSJT 031720
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1220 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER MEXICO AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, PRODUCING WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA.
CONTINUED SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL FEED MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA AND WILL LEAVE A LARGELY UNCAPPED OR WEAKLY AIR MASS ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING TO HELP
DEVELOP STORMS, BUT MUCH LIKE TUESDAY, THERE WILL BE A FEW
OUTFLOW AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AROUND THAT WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH LOCAL LIFT TO KICK OFF SOME STORMS. MOST OF THE
CAMS SHOW MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION BUT HE RRFS WHICH IS HANDLING
THE CONVECTION TONIGHT PRETTY WELL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
WILL LEAN THAT DIRECTION. OVERALL, AREAS WEST HAVE A SLIGHTLY
BETTER POP CHANCES (30-40%) THAN EAST ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND
EASTERN BIG COUNTRY (20%) BUT THAT MAY CHANGE AS THE BOUNDARIES
BECOME A LITTLE MORE OBVIOUS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT, BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN SOME AREAS THAT SOME STRAY HAIL OR GUSTY
WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE VERY MUCH DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THEY WERE ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
SATURDAY, AND THEN INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. THE
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THROUGH THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THEN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (30%) FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WE SHOULD SEE ANY
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. HOWEVER, MVFR LEVELS WILL MAKE A RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS AREA NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 89 71 86 / 20 10 10 50
SAN ANGELO 68 88 69 83 / 10 10 40 80
JUNCTION 68 88 68 84 / 10 10 40 80
BROWNWOOD 68 87 69 85 / 10 10 10 50
SWEETWATER 69 90 70 86 / 20 10 20 50
OZONA 68 86 67 81 / 10 10 50 90
BRADY 68 86 69 82 / 0 10 20 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...41
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