167
FXUS64 KSJT 032340
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
IT IS JUNE, AND APPROPRIATELY, THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS,
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS DUE TO A
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM THE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT,
SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. SEVERE CHANCES
ARE LOW TODAY, OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS, DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND PWATS OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES.
STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SETUP
FOR TOMORROW WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS TODAY, GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. CHANCES FOR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET UP. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER-
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL INCREASE, ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF AN 80KT
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DURING THIS TIME. THE MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS A
RESULT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLE PWATS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES ON FRIDAY, THEREBY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CURRENTLY, WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
BOTH DAYS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20%. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES DURING THIS TIME. THE TRADEOFF, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE RETURN
OF HOT CONDITIONS AS HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB BACK IN THE 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS, MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM NOLAN TO SEYMOUR. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. INITIALIZED THE KABI TAF WITH
VCTS GIVEN THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CITY. THIS CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF AN OZONA TO
BROWNWOOD LINE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN AT OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE 3000FT BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS (6-10 KNOTS) INITIALLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 89 71 86 / 20 10 10 50
SAN ANGELO 68 88 69 83 / 10 10 40 80
JUNCTION 68 88 68 84 / 10 10 40 80
BROWNWOOD 68 87 69 85 / 10 10 10 50
SWEETWATER 69 90 70 86 / 20 10 20 50
OZONA 68 86 67 81 / 10 10 50 90
BRADY 68 86 69 82 / 0 10 20 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...19
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