733
FXUS64 KSJT 040441
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1141 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
IT IS JUNE, AND APPROPRIATELY, THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS,
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS DUE TO A
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM THE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT,
SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. SEVERE CHANCES
ARE LOW TODAY, OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS, DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND PWATS OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES.
STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SETUP
FOR TOMORROW WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS TODAY, GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. CHANCES FOR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET UP. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INTO WESTERN
TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, ALONG
WITH AMPLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH MODELS SHOWING
PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 PERCENT BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE 90S, WITH SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS, MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM NOLAN TO SEYMOUR. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE. INITIALIZED THE KABI TAF WITH
VCTS GIVEN THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CITY. THIS CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING OR EARLY
TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, LOW CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF AN OZONA TO
BROWNWOOD LINE. THIS WILL AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH MVFR
CEILINGS MAINLY BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. BROKEN CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN AT OUR SOUTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT CEILINGS TO CLIMB ABOVE 3000FT BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS (6-10 KNOTS) INITIALLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 89 70 90 71 / 20 10 0 10
SAN ANGELO 86 68 88 69 / 30 10 10 20
JUNCTION 88 68 88 68 / 30 10 10 30
BROWNWOOD 88 68 87 69 / 10 0 10 10
SWEETWATER 89 69 90 70 / 30 10 10 20
OZONA 85 68 86 67 / 40 10 10 40
BRADY 86 68 86 69 / 20 0 10 20
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19
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