159
FXUS64 KSJT 040447
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1147 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (20-40%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
IT IS JUNE, AND APPROPRIATELY, THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MUCH MORE
TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS,
THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS DUE TO A
TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS STILL
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM THE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN CONCHO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT,
SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. SEVERE CHANCES
ARE LOW TODAY, OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS, DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR.
HOWEVER, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
EXPECTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND PWATS OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES.
STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70 AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE SETUP
FOR TOMORROW WILL BE NEARLY THE SAME AS TODAY, GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. CHANCES FOR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MAINLY
FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALSO
DEPEND ON WHERE ANY MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET UP. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INTO WESTERN
TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, ALONG
WITH AMPLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH MODELS SHOWING
PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 PERCENT BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE 90S, WITH SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS
LATE THIS EVENING, AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SOME STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND PUSH INT AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE, BEFORE LIFTING TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 90 71 86 / 10 0 10 50
SAN ANGELO 68 88 69 82 / 10 10 20 60
JUNCTION 68 88 68 83 / 10 10 30 60
BROWNWOOD 68 87 69 84 / 0 10 10 50
SWEETWATER 69 90 70 86 / 10 10 20 40
OZONA 68 86 67 80 / 10 10 40 60
BRADY 68 86 69 82 / 0 10 20 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...07
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