403
FXUS64 KSJT 041657
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1157 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
A RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS, ALBEIT WITH LIMITED SOURCES OF LIFT AND WEAK SHEAR
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON, PERHAPS BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES SEEM TO BE ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE THE CAMS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE, WITH
THE SMALLEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BIG COUNTRY. GIVEN THE
WEAK SHEAR, NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT ALTHOUGH
SOME DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO WHERE
THEY ENDED UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S, VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INTO WESTERN
TEXAS AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GOOD UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, ALONG
WITH AMPLE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING INSTABILITY
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH MODELS SHOWING
PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH TO LESS THAN
20 PERCENT BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD IN FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BRINING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL QUICKLY INCREASE BACK INTO THE 90S, WITH SOME AREAS
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY SEEING TRIPLE DIGITS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WE
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY FRIDAY
MORNING AROUND 12Z, WHICH WILL LARGELY AFFECT THE I-10 CORRIDOR
THE MOST INITIALLY. AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH WILL BE AFFECTED
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 86 68 86 / 0 30 60 70
SAN ANGELO 70 82 66 85 / 20 50 60 70
JUNCTION 68 83 66 86 / 30 50 60 40
BROWNWOOD 69 84 67 84 / 10 30 60 70
SWEETWATER 70 87 67 86 / 10 30 50 70
OZONA 68 81 65 84 / 40 60 60 50
BRADY 69 82 66 83 / 10 50 60 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...41
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