959
FXUS64 KSJT 042344
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
644 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY,
LOOKS QUIET DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS(PER HI-RES MODELS) MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
OUR AREA AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES BY AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE AREA. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HIGH PW VALUES(1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES). THERE IS
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO, THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY BUT
INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP IMPROVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
AT LEAST STRONG STORMS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A
DRYING OUT PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO PAINT ROCK TO NORTHERN IRION COUNTY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR BUT COULD BE IFR AT OUR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME AT OUR TAF SITES.
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY/CEILING ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY,
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 71 86 68 86 / 0 30 60 70
SAN ANGELO 70 82 66 85 / 20 50 60 70
JUNCTION 68 83 66 86 / 30 50 60 40
BROWNWOOD 69 84 67 84 / 10 30 60 70
SWEETWATER 70 87 67 86 / 10 30 50 70
OZONA 68 81 65 84 / 40 60 60 50
BRADY 69 82 66 83 / 10 50 60 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19
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