735
FXUS64 KSJT 050440
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1140 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY,
LOOKS QUIET DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS(PER HI-RES MODELS) MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THERE IS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME AREAS OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SETTLING OVER THE AREA. WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SATURDAY. ALSO, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR SATURDAY BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP IMPROVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A DRYING OUT PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO PAINT ROCK TO NORTHERN IRION COUNTY.
CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR BUT COULD OCCASIONALLY BE IFR AT OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING, AND ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
CARRYING PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME AT OUR TAF SITES. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY/CEILING ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ACCOMPANYING THE CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
SOME OF THE STORMS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 90 71 86 69 / 0 0 30 60
SAN ANGELO 88 70 83 66 / 10 20 60 50
JUNCTION 88 68 83 67 / 20 30 60 50
BROWNWOOD 87 69 84 67 / 10 10 40 50
SWEETWATER 90 70 86 67 / 10 10 40 60
OZONA 86 68 81 65 / 10 30 60 50
BRADY 86 69 82 67 / 10 10 50 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19
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