032
FXUS64 KSJT 050601
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
101 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BUT NOTHING
ORGANIZED. OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY,
LOOKS QUIET DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS(PER HI-RES MODELS) MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THERE IS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME AREAS OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SETTLING OVER THE AREA. WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SATURDAY. ALSO, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR SATURDAY BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP IMPROVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A DRYING OUT PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD BE MOSTLY MVFR BUT
COULD OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO IFR AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF -TSRA
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 69 86 70 / 40 50 70 60
SAN ANGELO 83 66 85 69 / 50 50 60 50
JUNCTION 83 67 87 70 / 50 50 50 50
BROWNWOOD 84 67 84 69 / 50 40 70 70
SWEETWATER 86 67 86 68 / 40 50 70 50
OZONA 81 65 85 69 / 50 50 50 30
BRADY 82 67 84 69 / 50 50 60 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...42
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