966
FXUS64 KSJT 051124
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
624 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE FORMING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE PERMAIN BASIN AND TRANS
PECOS. MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50% GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER, SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE (PW VALUES OF
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES PER THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AT KSJT).
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
-GIVEN SOME OF THE CAMS- AND THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF POPS GOING
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER- MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S- GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THERE IS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME AREAS OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SETTLING OVER THE AREA. WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SATURDAY. ALSO, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR SATURDAY BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP IMPROVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A DRYING OUT PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
PATCHY LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CIGS. CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT TO
VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE WITH PROB 30'S FOR -TSRA FOR ALL THE TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 69 86 70 / 40 50 70 60
SAN ANGELO 83 66 85 69 / 50 50 60 50
JUNCTION 83 67 87 70 / 50 50 50 50
BROWNWOOD 84 67 84 69 / 50 40 70 70
SWEETWATER 86 67 86 68 / 40 50 70 50
OZONA 81 65 85 69 / 50 50 50 30
BRADY 82 67 84 69 / 50 50 60 60
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...42
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