796
FXUS64 KSJT 051715
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE FORMING TO THE WEST ACROSS THE PERMAIN BASIN AND TRANS
PECOS. MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, HIGH-RES MODELS DEVELOP
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50% GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE.
HOWEVER, SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE (PW VALUES OF
GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES PER THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDING AT KSJT).
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
-GIVEN SOME OF THE CAMS- AND THUS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF POPS GOING
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY WILL BE COOLER- MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S- GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND STORMS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, THERE IS A MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOME AREAS OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, GIVEN THE HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SETTLING OVER THE AREA. WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SATURDAY. ALSO, THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR SATURDAY BUT INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP IMPROVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR AT LEAST STRONG STORMS. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A DRYING OUT PATTERN AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SMALL HAIL AND SOME MINOR GUSTY
WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, AMPLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
BY SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE I-10 CORRIDOR. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND MVFR LEVEL CEILINGS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 68 86 69 92 / 60 60 50 10
SAN ANGELO 65 84 68 91 / 70 50 40 0
JUNCTION 66 87 69 91 / 50 30 40 0
BROWNWOOD 67 85 68 90 / 70 60 60 20
SWEETWATER 66 85 68 94 / 70 50 30 0
OZONA 65 85 69 90 / 80 40 20 0
BRADY 66 84 68 89 / 70 40 50 10
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...41
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