563
FXUS64 KSJT 060504
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1204 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEAST REACHING THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING THESE FEATURE IS CHALLENGING, BUT
THE CONSENSUS IS THAT ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING EAST
OR EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
COVERAGE WE WILL SEE OVERNIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THIS EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS,
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH PARTS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
ON SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT MEDIUM (40-70%) RAIN CHANCES. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY, SETTLING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND INCREASE INTO THE 90S TO LOW TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, AND WITH THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST WE DIDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE NBM WHICH BROUGHT
LOW CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING
NORTHWESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY AT 630 PM. OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS
WERE CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BIG COUNTRY. OTHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR BALLINGER
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO INTERSTATE 10. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEAST. CARRYING VCTS INITIALLY AT KABI,
WHERE NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND
UPDATE TAFS AS NEEDED FOR SHRA/TSRA. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY/
CEILING COULD OCCUR IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACCOMPANYING THE
CONVECTION. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP. DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AND AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE KABI TAF SITE
WOULD MOST LIKELY BE AFFECTED. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TONIGHT, AND
FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 68 86 69 / 40 60 50 60
SAN ANGELO 86 65 87 69 / 50 70 40 40
JUNCTION 83 66 89 70 / 60 50 20 30
BROWNWOOD 84 67 87 68 / 40 60 40 60
SWEETWATER 86 66 86 68 / 40 60 60 40
OZONA 86 65 87 70 / 50 70 30 20
BRADY 82 66 86 69 / 50 60 30 50
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...19
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