464
FXUS64 KSJT 060559
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEAST REACHING THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO OKLAHOMA SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING THESE FEATURE IS CHALLENGING, BUT
THE CONSENSUS IS THAT ONE SUCH FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WITH THIS ACTIVITY TRACKING EAST
OR EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY HOW MUCH
COVERAGE WE WILL SEE OVERNIGHT, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
THIS EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS,
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH PARTS OF THE BIG
COUNTRY REACHING THE UPPER 80S.
ON SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT MEDIUM (40-70%) RAIN CHANCES. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY, SETTLING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND INCREASE INTO THE 90S TO LOW TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, AND WITH THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST WE DIDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE NBM WHICH BROUGHT
LOW CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 07-08Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WILL
INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT KABI AND KSJT. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND
OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 69 93 75 / 50 60 10 0
SAN ANGELO 87 69 93 73 / 40 40 0 0
JUNCTION 89 70 93 72 / 20 30 0 0
BROWNWOOD 87 68 91 73 / 40 70 20 0
SWEETWATER 86 68 95 73 / 60 40 0 0
OZONA 87 70 92 72 / 30 20 0 0
BRADY 86 69 90 72 / 30 40 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELS
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...42
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