238
FXUS64 KSJT 060909
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
409 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2-6 INCHES LAST NIGHT OVER THE BIG COUNTRY HAVE
MOSTLY DISSIPATED. HOWEVER, NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY DOWN INTO THE HEARTLAND.
THIS ALL THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE TRANS
PECOS. HIGH RES GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HARD TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP
BUT GIVEN A SIGNAL IN SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND CAMS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY WILL GO AHEAD AND
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT LEVELS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN HAZARDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE COMING TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY, SETTLING OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS, IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, AND INCREASE INTO THE 90S TO LOW TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 70S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME LOWER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, AND WITH THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST WE DIDN'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE NBM WHICH BROUGHT
LOW CHANCES (10 TO 20 PERCENT) INTO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 07-08Z.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS LOW, BUT WILL
INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT KABI AND KSJT. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER ROUND
OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 86 69 93 75 / 50 60 10 0
SAN ANGELO 87 69 93 73 / 40 40 0 0
JUNCTION 89 70 93 72 / 20 30 0 0
BROWNWOOD 87 68 91 73 / 40 70 20 0
SWEETWATER 86 68 95 73 / 60 40 0 0
OZONA 87 70 92 72 / 30 20 0 0
BRADY 86 69 90 72 / 30 40 10 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-
THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...42
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