289
FXUS64 KSJT 070447
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1147 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40% TO 70%) FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING LATE THIS
MORNING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
A CONCERN TODAY, GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS,
WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH
TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FELL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS
AREA YESTERDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ISSUES.
IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE RAIN POTENTIAL, A MARGINAL RISK FOR
LOCALIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL, MAINLY UP TO QUARTER SIZE AND
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT,
PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS, WITH RAINFALL ENDING BEFORE
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY INTO TUES NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MON NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ELONGATES AND
PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BECOME ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 500MB RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS A 500MB TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
DEEPENS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY MID-EVENING.
HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
STRATUS WILL SPREAD TO ALL SITES, EXCEPT KABI, SUNDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS. VFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO ALL SITES
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, BY MID TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
ABILENE 70 93 75 95 / 50 10 0 0
SAN ANGELO 70 94 73 95 / 30 0 0 0
JUNCTION 71 94 72 93 / 20 0 0 10
BROWNWOOD 69 93 73 94 / 80 10 0 0
SWEETWATER 68 96 74 97 / 30 0 0 0
OZONA 70 93 72 92 / 10 0 0 0
BRADY 70 91 72 91 / 60 0 0 0
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-
HASKELL-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...DANIELS
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