815
FXUS66 KSTO 152145
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
145 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2024
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS, MOUNTAIN SNOW, AND GUSTY
WINDS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER AROUND MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WE'VE HAD A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE'S STILL SOME CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
PARTICULAR, THERE IS A 10 TO 15% PROBABILITY TODAY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SIERRA FROM ABOUT I-80 SOUTHWARD. OUR WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL 10PM TONIGHT FOR ANY
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS.
AFTER PRECIPITATION FULLY TAPERS OFF TONIGHT, SATURDAY WILL BE
COLD AND DRY. THE NBM HAS A 20 TO 50% PROBABILITY OF MORNING LOWS
LESS THAN 35 DEG F, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE CENTRAL
SACRAMENTO AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS, MAINLY EAST OF I-5.
BREEZY NORTH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF
THE VALLEY ARE STILL EXPECTED, AND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ALONG
THAT SIDE OF I-5 SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
VALLEY.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NORCAL, THOUGH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS WEEK. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH THE MAJORITY
OCCURRING SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SIERRA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH A 50 TO 80% PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES
OF SNOW OR MORE OVER 24 HOURS AND ABOVE 5500 FT. LATER ON MONDAY,
RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO CALIFORNIA, BRINGING THE
RETURN OF DRY AND CALM WEATHER.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
TUESDAY THERE WILL BE FURTHER CHANCES FOR COLD MORNING
TEMPERATURES; THE NBM IS SHOWING 20 TO 65% PROBABILITY OF VALLEY
TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 35 DEG F TUESDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES OCCURRING EAST OF I-5. MOVING FURTHER INTO TUESDAY, THE
FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
LATE ON TUESDAY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN
SHASTA COUNTY, THOUGH PROBABILITIES ARE LOW FOR ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION (GENERALLY 30-40% OR LESS IN THE NBM) UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE VALLEY,
FOOTHILLS, AND MOUNTAINS, THOUGH STILL ONLY A 20-50% PROBABILITY
FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY (WITH CHANCES INCREASING MOVING
NORTHWARD). FRIDAY LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT
WEEK, AS A TROUGH MOVES IN OFF OF THE COAST. THE NBM HAS A 45 TO
70% PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ON FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PATTERN THOUGH, SO STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.
AVIATION
THERE ARE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACCROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. AREAS OF MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR IN THE
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL 04Z. LOCAL
SURFACE NORTH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY UP TO 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR WEST
SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
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