553
FXUS66 KSTO 161030
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
230 AM PST SAT NOV 16 2024
SYNOPSIS
COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS, MOUNTAIN
SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER AROUND MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRED AT 10PM AS LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS SHIFTED EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT
THEM SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED, CALTRANS AT 2 AM WAS STILL REPORTING A FEW
MOUNTAIN HIGHWAYS WITH SOME CHAIN CONTROLS, SUCH AS HIGHWAY 88 AND
HIGHWAY 108, SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK OUT CALTRANS QUICKMAP AT
QUICKMAP.DOT.CA.GOV BEFORE HEADING UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING. OVERALL CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURN TO THE AREA, EXCEPT
FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS IN MOUNTAIN BASINS AND OVER THE SIERRA CREST.
TODAY WILL BE COLD AND DRY, THOUGH SOME NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS THEY COULD BE.
SHELTERED AREAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY COULD BE THE
EXCEPTION, WITH THE NBM HAVING A 30% TO 55% PROBABILITY OF
MORNING LOWS LESS THAN 35 DEG F. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY
AS EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGING BUILDS IN, WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
TO 30 MPH ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY, UP TO 35 MPH IN THE
DELTA. HIGHS IN THE DELTA ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 60S,
GENERALLY UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH NORCAL, THOUGH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR
THIS WEEK AND IS QUICK MOVING. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT,
WITH THE MAJORITY OCCURRING SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE SIERRA THROUGH MONDAY.
QPF AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
50 TO 80% PROBABILITY OF 2 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE OVER 24 HOURS
AND ABOVE 5500 FT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES IN
THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, RIDGING BEGINS TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
INTO CALIFORNIA, BRINGING THE RETURN OF DRY AND CALM WEATHER.
TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES LOOK RATHER COLD, WITH 25%-45%
PROBABILITY OF 32 DEGREES OR LESS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BGINS SPREADS IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AND RAIN THREATS ARE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL RANGE AND THE SOUTHERN CASCADES, WITH LESSER
PRECIPITATION PROJECTED SOUTH OF I-80. SO FAR WINTER IMPACTS LOOK
LIMITED, BUT STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER, AND WILL SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE VALLEY, FOOTHILLS, AND MOUNTAINS, WITH A 20-70% PROBABILITY
FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY (WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER
NORTHERN AREAS). FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, AS A TROUGH APPROACHES
THE COAST. THE NBM HAS A 45 TO 70% PROBABILITY OF A QUARTER OF AN
INCH ON FRIDAY. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. SFC NORTH WINDS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30
MPH UNTIL 00Z SUN, STRONGEST ACROSS THE DELTA AREA, BEFORE
TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EVENING.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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