822
FXUS66 KSTO 150123
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
523 PM PST SAT DEC 14 2024
SYNOPSIS
LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER
SYSTEM.
*WINTER STORM WARNING: UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE
5000 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN CASCADES & SIERRA
DISCUSSION
DRY AND AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE VALLEY AND
FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING (PER GOES-WEST VISIBLE IMAGERY), AFTER A
STRONG STORM SYSTEM BROUGHT STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EARLIER TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED UP INTO THE
SIERRA WHERE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 12 INCHES IS EXPECTED ABOVE
5000 FEET IN THE SIERRA, WITH 18 TO 24 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. AS A RESULT OUR WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SIERRA UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINING DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREK FURTHER EAST, CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. HI-RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 40-80% CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2
MILE ACROSS THE VALLEY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE UPPER FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE,
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NORTH
VALLEY WINDS.
THE NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINS ON LATE SUNDAY, AS A
WEAKER AND FAST-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MID MORNING. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IMPACTS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER SHASTA COUNTY, THE MOUNTAINS THEREIN COULD SEE 2 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM 3000 TO 4000 FEET, UP TO 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR
ABOVE 4000 FEET, WHILE THE NORTHERN SIERRA COULD SEE AROUND 1 TO 5
INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET. RAIN WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LESS WITH ONLY 0.10-0.40" FORECASTED FOR THE VALLEY AND
0.15-0.75" OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND UP TO 1.00" OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN
SHASTA COUNTY, WITH 0.6-1.50" OF RAIN FORECAST OVER A 24-HOUR
PERIOD.
EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
THERE WILL BE A QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FROM MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES, THIS MAY
ALSO PROVIDE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH
COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. GENERALLY LIGHT
DIURNAL/TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLUSTERS ARE HINTING AT THE NEXT POTENTIAL
FOR A PRECIPITATION EVENT ON SATURDAY, THOUGH THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
LIKE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM.
AVIATION
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE SIERRA THROUGH
06Z, BEFORE MVFR/IFR AND AREAS OF LIFR IN BR/FG RETURN TO THE
VALLEY BY 09Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO WEST WINDS THROUGH 02Z GRADUALLY
WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 12 KTS AFTER 06Z BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY BY MID SUNDAY MORNING.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR BURNEY
BASIN / EASTERN SHASTA COUNTY-WEST SLOPE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA-
WESTERN PLUMAS COUNTY/LASSEN PARK.
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