541
FXUS66 KSTO 302011
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
111 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER PREVAILS THIS WEEK
- WEAK OFFSHORE BREEZES CONTINUE
- LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL SHOWERS TO
RETURN TO THE FORECAST MID NEXT WEEK AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DISCUSSION
TODAY - WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
PATTERN ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IN THE DELTA, WITH
LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. LOCALLY
DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW (FRIDAY) MORNING, WITH BEST CHANCES
FROM AROUND YUBA CITY SOUTH INTO STOCKTON, WITH AROUND A 40-60%
CHANCE OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1/2 MILE FROM 5 AM THROUGH 11 AM.
FRIDAY (OCTOBER 31ST)...ANOTHER DAY OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOW 60S TO UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE VALLEY.
MID NEXT WEEK...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A PATTERN
CHANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS
PROJECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MONDAY, THEN
PROGRESSIVELY DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
TRACK AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS, WITH THE GFS
ADVERTISING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE ECMWF BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN THE VALLEY ARE 20-40% TUESDAY-THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW SNOW TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, INTERIOR NORCAL IS MORE ON TRACK FOR A BENEFICIAL
RAIN AGAIN, WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH.
ALWAYS REMEMBER TO CHECK YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST AT
WEATHER.GOV FOR UPDATES, AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THROUGH
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BR FRIDAY MORNING 12-17Z,
ALONG WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF PATCHY MORNING FOG FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY NORTHWARD TO AROUND KMYV. SURFACE
WINDS FOR TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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