115
FNUS76 KSTO 190906
FWSSTO
SPOT FORECAST FOR CONCOW RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
106 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PST ON DECEMBER 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ACTIVE WEATHER RESUMES TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY PERIOD.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF LULL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE BURN
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST GUSTS
LOOK TO SIT AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH GENERALLY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THERE IS HIGHER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT DETAILS INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY
ALONGSIDE ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL GREATER THAN 6 INCHES FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SIT AROUND 50-80%, WITH 40-70% PROBABILITIES OF
WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
MIN HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 18 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 38
MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO NEAR 700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 22 MPH.
CWR.................97 PERCENT DECREASING TO 71 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...11 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
CWR.............90 90 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 70 70
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............48 48 47 46 47 47 48 49 49 49 50
RH..............93 96 98 100 100 100 100 100 100 98 96
SL/VL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S
SL/VL WIND SPD..20 22 20 16 14 12 10 10 9 10 10
SL/VL WIND GUST.37 38 36 31 26 24 22 22 21 21 21
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S
RIDGE WIND SPD..22 22 22 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.22 22 22 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 14
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....45-50.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 23
MPH.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 12 TO 14 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO AROUND 100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 14 MPH.
CWR.................71 PERCENT DECREASING TO 47 PERCENT IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...11 PERCENT IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO 5
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
TIME (PST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
CWR.............70 70 70 70 50 50 50 50 50 50 40 40
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............50 51 51 51 51 51 52 52 52 51 50 50
RH..............98 97 100 99 97 96 96 96 97 98 99 97
SL/VL WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S SE SE
SL/VL WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10
SL/VL WIND GUST.21 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 21 21
RIDGE WIND DIR..W W W W W W W W W W W W
RIDGE WIND SPD..45 45 40 35 35 35 35 40 40 40 40 35
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
MIN HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 21 MPH IN
THE MORNING.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO NEAR 800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 12 MPH.
CWR.................39 PERCENT INCREASING TO 96 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...7 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
CWR.............40 40 40 40 80 80 80 80 80 80 100 100
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0
TEMP............50 50 50 49 48 48 49 50 50 50 50 50
RH..............94 93 95 98 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 98
SL/VL WIND DIR..SE S S S S S S S S S S S
SL/VL WIND SPD..10 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 7 7 6 6
SL/VL WIND GUST.21 21 21 21 20 20 20 15 15 15 12 12
RIDGE WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
RIDGE WIND SPD..12 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 7 7 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 10 10 10 10 10 10 7 7 7 6 6
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
SUNDAY
RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
13 TO 18 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 38 MPH AT TIMES.
MONDAY
SHOWERS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 18 TO 22 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH EARLY, DECREASING TO 7 TO 10 MPH.
TUESDAY
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
FORECASTER...JW
REQUESTED BY...JASON MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527616.4/STO
.DELDT 12/19/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JAMES.LICO@USDA.GOV,JASON.T.MILLER@USDA.GOV,JESSE.STEVENS@USDA.GOV,MARK.CRESALIA@USDA.GOV
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