791
FNUS76 KSTO 102029
FWSSTO
SPOT FORECAST FOR CASA LOMA HAND PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1229 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 PST ON FEBRUARY 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL TIME OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE BURN SITE UNTIL AROUND 2-4PM, HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM
LOOK TO BE AROUND 1.00 INCH OR SO, HIGHER IF A T-STORM DEVELOPS OVER
THE SITE. WE WILL DRY OUT BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON A COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
LOWER ELEVATION SNOW CHANCES INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-53.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 3 TO 6 MPH.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 16 TO 24 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 16 TO 24 MPH.
CWR.................13 PERCENT INCREASING TO 96 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...13 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 1 PM 5 PM
SKY COVER.......MCLDY CLOUDY
CWR.............10 100
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10
TEMP............49 46
RH..............73 86
SL/VL WIND......S 6G13 S 5G9
RIDGETOP WIND...S 24 S 16
MIX HGT (FT)....4000 1600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 24 S 16
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN
RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-40.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
CWR.................96 PERCENT DECREASING TO 85 PERCENT AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...12 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6 PM 10 PM 2 AM
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
CWR.............100 90 90
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10
TEMP............44 43 43
RH..............90 79 76
SL/VL WIND......S 3G7 SE 2G6 SE 2G8
RIDGETOP WIND...S 16 SE 16 SE 18
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 600 1200
TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 SE 16 SE 18
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....42-46.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-74 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH UP TO 6 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTH 17 TO 23 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO 22 TO 23 MPH
IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................85 PERCENT DECREASING TO 16 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...11 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
SKY COVER.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
CWR.............90 80 80
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10
TEMP............38 41 43
RH..............96 83 89
SL/VL WIND......S 3G9 SE 6G12 S 6G12
RIDGETOP WIND...SE 17 S 22 S 23
MIX HGT (FT)....1200 3100 3200
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 17 S 22 S 23
FORECASTER...JW
REQUESTED BY...TAHOE/AMERICAN RIVER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2601914.1/STO
.DELDT 02/10/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ERIC.HUSMANN@USDA.GOV,JAMES.BOLLINGER@USDA.GOV,JEREMY.HIERONIMUS@USDA.GOV,MIKE.DUROCHER@USDA.GOV,GLEN.HAYDON@USDA.GOV
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