642
FNUS76 KSTO 110345
FWSSTO
SPOT FORECAST FOR BRUSH CREEK STATION RX...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
745 PM PST TUE FEB 10 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 PST ON FEBRUARY 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION NEAR THE BURN SITE
AT TIMES, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL GREATER THAN 1" FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
EVENING SIT AROUND 30-50%. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT DRIER WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED LATER
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONGER AND COLDER STORM IS ON TRACK
TO BRING ADDITIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST SNOW LEVELS AT
THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 4000 FEET NEAR THE BURN
SITE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN RAIN SHOWERS
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
MIN HUMIDITY........67-72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 31 MPH DECREASING TO 5 TO 9 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHEAST 9 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO AROUND 2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 17 MPH.
CWR.................85 PERCENT DECREASING TO 72 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...UP TO 16 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (PST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
CWR.............90 90 90 80 80 80 80 80 80 70 70
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 20 10 10
TEMP............46 46 45 46 47 48 48 48 49 48 47
RH..............79 78 80 78 74 74 80 76 75 73 75
SL/VL WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE S SE SE SE SE
SL/VL WIND SPD..12 10 12 12 10 10 9 9 8 6 6
SL/VL WIND GUST.29 30 31 29 28 25 24 22 22 14 14
RIDGE WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE
RIDGE WIND SPD..13 13 13 17 17 17 14 14 14 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.4 1.4 1.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S SE SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 13 17 17 17 14 14 14 9 9
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN
CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
MAX HUMIDITY........75-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
UP TO 6 MPH.
RIDGETOP...........SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................72 PERCENT DECREASING TO 4 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...UP TO 12 PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (PST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC
CWR.............70 70 70 70 20 20 20 20 20 20 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............47 47 46 46 46 46 45 45 44 44 43 42
RH..............78 75 78 79 78 79 80 81 80 79 78 78
SL/VL WIND DIR..SE E E E E E E E E E NE NE
SL/VL WIND SPD..6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
SL/VL WIND GUST.14 10 10 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10
RIDGE WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E
RIDGE WIND SPD..9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY THEN BECOMING SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........49-54 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGETOP...........NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 6
TO 7 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO AROUND 4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 6 TO 8 MPH.
CWR.................4 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
TIME (PST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY COVER.......MC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............40 40 43 46 50 53 55 56 57 57 57 55
RH..............77 75 71 67 62 58 54 51 49 48 49 53
SL/VL WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE N N N NW NW NW NW NW
SL/VL WIND SPD..6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
SL/VL WIND GUST.10 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12
RIDGE WIND DIR..E NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N
RIDGE WIND SPD..8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 4.7 4.7 4.7 2.4 2.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.E NE NE NE NE NE NE N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING LIGHT.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.
SUNDAY
RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
FORECASTER...NR
REQUESTED BY...JASON MILLER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2601883.5/STO
.DELDT 02/11/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JASON.T.MILLER@USDA.GOV,JAMES.LICO@USDA.GOV,MARK.CRESALIA@USDA.GOV,JESSE.STEVENS@USDA.GOV
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