637
FXUS66 KSTO 211930
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1130 AM PST SAT FEB 21 2026
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON WEATHER AND EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, PLEASE VISIT WEATHER.GOV/STO/BRIEFING.
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND COASTAL RANGE TODAY WITH LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
- WARM STORM BRINGS ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK
DISCUSSION
..TODAY
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR. LATEST HI-REZ MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST PRECIPITATION IN AND AROUND REDDING IN SHASTA
COUNTY BEGINNING AROUND 8 OR 9PM TONIGHT, HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER. ELSEWHERE, PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH THE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT/MORNING TEMPERATURES, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE UPPER FOOTHILLS OR MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.
..SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE
REGION. ENSEMBLES DEPICT A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OFF THE PACNW
COAST, SLOWLY PHASING WITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY TUESDAY, THEN
RETROGRADING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY THURSDAY. WITH THE LOW
AND TROUGH REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE, COLDER AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
PROTRUDE AS FAR SOUTH AS OUR PREVIOUS SYSTEM. WITH WESTERLY FLOW,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST IVT PLUME OF
250 KG/MS WILL FALL AS RAIN, WITH ONLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY
6000 FEET SEEING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
SHOWS A DECREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS, AND AN INCREASE IN RAIN TOTALS,
WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST TO ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) HANDLES THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WELL WITH PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH OF RAIN
OR MORE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 50-80% FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF
CHICO AND INTO NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY, THE NE FOOTHILLS, AND THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES, SIERRA, AND COASTAL RANGE. WHILE MOST OF THE
VALLEY WILL SEE RAIN FROM THIS EVENT, THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WITH
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASED RAIN TOTALS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS, ISOLATED FLOODING ON STREETS AND ROADWAYS MAY BE A
CONCERN AS SNOW MELTS IN THE FOOTHILLS.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MOSTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER TOTALS LOOK TO BE BELOW 0.50 FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE CLIMBING AS WE MOVE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. STRONGEST
WIND GUSTS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS; STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO
VALLEY, NE FOOTHILLS, AND ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
SIERRA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS POTENTIAL IMPACTS AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO
FLUCTUATE.
AVIATION
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AT TAF SITES WITH SURFACE
WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY FROM AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH
12Z, ALONG WITH VICINITY SHOWERS, WHICH MAY LOWER CEILINGS INTO
MVFR CONDITIONS.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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