604
FXUS66 KSTO 302009
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
109 PM PDT MON MAR 30 2026
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON WEATHER AND EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, PLEASE VISIT WEATHER.GOV/STO/BRIEFING.
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER BUT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS
- SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS LIGHT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
CHANCES, THUNDERSTORMS, BREEZY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY- THURSDAY
- DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
..TODAY
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE CAN BE SEEN TODAY WITH SCATTERED MID-
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION HAS
HIT THE GROUND IN OUR AREA SO FAR BUT CAN SEE WEAK ECHOES FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA AHEAD OF OUR PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED IN EARNEST
BY MIDWEEK. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET TODAY OUTSIDE OF WEAK
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER SHASTA COUNTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY, WARMEST AS YOU
TRAVEL FURTHER SOUTH.
..TUESDAY-THURSDAY
BY TUESDAY, TROUGHING HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL
INTRODUCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWER CHANCES, MOUNTAIN SNOW,
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL
BE IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS AS MAIN WAVE OF ENERGY MOVES INLAND.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE 10-25% ON TUESDAY WITH 15-25%
EXPECTED FROM INTERSTATE 80 SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL
VALLEY, ADJACENT FOOTHILLS, AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
THUNDER CHANCES TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER BUT STILL 10-25% CHANCES,
HIGHEST NOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN FOOTHILLS INTO SHASTA COUNTY
(20-25%). CURRENT THREATS WITH ANY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS, LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL
ACCUMULATING HAIL. ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY, WE WILL SEE
RAIN SHADOWING IN EFFECT PRODUCING MUCH LOWER EXPECTED TOTALS IN
COMPARISON TO SHASTA COUNTY TO THE SIERRA.
MOUNTAIN SNOW LEVELS ARE ROUGHLY 6500 FEET WEDNESDAY, THEN
FALLING TO 5000-6000 FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SNOW AMOUNTS RATES
LESSEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE ALONG THE PEAKS IN
THE SOUTHERN CASCADES AND NORTHERN SIERRA. AROUND 4-8 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET; LOCALLY
HIGHER ALONG PEAKS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM AS WELL, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH IN THE VALLEY;
STRONGEST IN THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND NE FOOTHILLS.
STRONGER SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
..NEXT WEEKEND
BY FRIDAY, WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRYING AND NORTHERLY WINDS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF 35 MPH
OR MORE ON FRIDAY ARE AROUND 60-85% ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-5
CORRIDOR. WHILE THE DRYING CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
NORTH WINDS EXISTS, FUELS ARE NOT QUITE AT THE LEVEL TO CONSIDER
ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF WE CONTINUE
LONG PERIODS OF DRYING AND WARM TEMPERATURES, FUELS ARE GOING TO
CONTINUE TO CURE AHEAD OF SEASONAL NORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE BACK INTO LOW TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEY BY
SATURDAY, PROMPTING THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MINOR HEATRISK IN THE
VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
GENERALLY LIGHT (BELOW 12 KTS) SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. WESTERLY
GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS. CHANCES OF -SHRA IN THE
VALLEY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE
VALLEY AFTER 18Z TUESDAY, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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