328
FXUS66 KSTO 121929
AFDSTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1229 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2026
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON WEATHER AND EXPECTED IMPACTS OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, PLEASE VISIT WEATHER.GOV/STO/BRIEFING.
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES, MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
- DRY WEATHER AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY DRYING AND WARMING TREND MID- TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY IN THE VALLEY;
POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN NORTHERN SAC
VALLEY & MOUNTAINS.
DISCUSSION
..TODAY & TUESDAY
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING, WITH
SOME LIGHT RETURNS NOTED ON RADAR. SOME ACCUMULATING RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE REGION
INFLUENCES THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
FALL-LIKE THIS MORNING AS WELL, WITH MID TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORCAL. LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS WELL, AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HAVE A NORTH TO SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE VALLEY. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY, ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS,
HIGH ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS (LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS), AND A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT THOSE CHANCES ARE DECREASING AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING.
TUESDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MORE FALL-LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS INTERIOR NORCAL. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTH INTO
NEVADA TUESDAY AS WELL, SHIFTING THE STRONGER NORTH WINDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE DELTA AND COAST RANGE. INCREASED DRYING ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH THE BREEZIER NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN
SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 MPH AND DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW
PRESSURE TRANSLATES FURTHER EAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF
TUESDAY.
..WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY
BY WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE PACIFIC. WARMING TREND, WITH
DRYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN BREEZY NORTH TO
EAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, USHERING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
DOWNSLOPE GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH ARE IN THE FORECAST NOW.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACTLY HOW STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE,
ALONG WITH HOW LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LATER THIS WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOUNCE BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S/90S BY
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLES SHOWING THE POTENTIAL BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE BY LATE
WEEKEND, EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD AT LEAST USHER IN MORE FALL-
LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR NORCAL THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY. LIGHT VFR PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HWY 50 OVER
THE SIERRA FROM NOW UNTIL 03Z TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS UNTIL 06Z TUESDAY AND LINGERING GUSTS
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER 12Z
TUE, NORTH WINDS RETURN TO ACROSS THE VALLEY WITH 10 TO 15 KTS, UP
TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE DELTA THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, BREEZY EAST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 03Z TUESDAY THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY WITH 10 TO 20KTS, GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KTS.
STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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