547
FXUS62 KTAE 161131
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE DOING SO,
SURFACE WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE FLINT RIVER AND
WIREGRASS AREAS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING; SUNNY SKIES WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S AFTER MORNING
LOWS IN THE 40S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S WITH LOW
50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE FLORIDA COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES EAST AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN A WARM UP TREND BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL COOLER FALL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED LATER
IN THE UPCOMING WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS
MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND IT WILL BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA,
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOME OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, AND THE CONTRIBUTION OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE POTENTIAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA
(CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN) WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS,
BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
MATERIALIZE WHICH IS STILL REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AFTER THE RAIN PUSHES THROUGH, THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
FAR BEHIND AND PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO COOL
BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY BE THE
COOLEST WEATHER OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR/IFR VSBYS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE FLINT RIVER VALLEY TO THE WIREGRASS OF SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, INCLUDING ABY, DHN, AND VLD, AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID
MORNING. BEYOND THIS, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS CLOCKING AROUND
TO THE EAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
FOR THIS WEEKEND, EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FEET. FOR NEXT WEEK, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SARA MAY APPROACH OUR AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COLD
FRONT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING AS WELL
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FILLS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO LOW
DISPERSIONS AREAWIDE. SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AROUND DAYBREAK AND
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH
WINDS CLOCKING TO THE EAST TODAY AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE MIDWEEK AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
TROPICAL STORM SARA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE NORTHWEST
YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ITS REMNANT MOISTURE MAY
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, AROUND 2-3" OF RAIN IS
FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
NOT LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS DUE TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS THE AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 45 DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 74 51 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 75 55 78 59 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 73 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 72 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 73 48 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 76 52 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 61 74 64 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHOLL
SHORT TERM...DOBBS
LONG TERM....DOBBS
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...DOBBS
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