689
FXUS62 KTAE 170527
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1227 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR AND SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD COMBINED
WITH AN H5 RIDGE OVERHEAD KEEPS US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO A MODEST WARMING TREND WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. SURFACE MOISTURE
INCREASES MODESTLY TONIGHT AND WILL LEAD TO A LOW TO MEDIUM (10 TO
30%) CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THE
CHANCES OF FOG INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST ONE WILL ABSORB MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF
SARA AND BRING US SOME RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT; THE SECOND
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND BRINGS SOME OF THE COOLEST
AIR THUS FAR THIS SEASON LATER NEXT WEEK.
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE FIRST COLD FRONT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (PWATS) ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS IS THANKS, IN LARGE
PART, TO THE MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA,
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA, BEING ABSORBED
BY THE FRONT AS A DEEP H5 TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY. A NEARBY WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE REMNANTS OF SARA
WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
COUPLE THIS WITH FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS OUR REGION. AS OF NOW, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, MUCH OF
FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(1 OF 4) ELSEWHERE. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1" TO 3" IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES SHOW THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE (LESS THAN 5%) OF EXCEEDING 4" OF RAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA. CONSIDERING MOST OF OUR
CLIMATE SITES AVERAGE LESS THAN 4" FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER, ON
AVERAGE, THAT'S A PRETTY HIGH CHANCE. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE'LL MONITOR HOW FAR
NORTH THE WARM FRONT AND BETTER INSTABILITY CAN MAKE IT; THIS
REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST FRONT,
BUT WON'T CONTAIN ANY RAIN. WHAT IT WILL BRING IS MUCH DRIER AND
COOLER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER BEING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF NOVEMBER, WE'RE FINALLY
GOING TO GET A DECENT TASTE OF FALL WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE
20S AND DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 50S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE
(30-50%) OF LOWS IN THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THERE
WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY
FOG AT ABY/VLD FROM 08-13Z. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
EASTERLY BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NEXT WEEK, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM SARA MAY APPROACH OUR AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
TRANSPORT WINDS REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT SUNDAY LEADING TO LOW
DISPERSIONS AREAWIDE. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS
IS DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA
GETTING ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1" TO 3" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES SHOW
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 5%) OF EXCEEDING 4" OF RAIN
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
CONSIDERING MOST OF OUR CLIMATE SITES AVERAGE LESS THAN 4" FOR THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER, ON AVERAGE, THAT'S A PRETTY HIGH CHANCE IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE REALIZED. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED AS THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL KEEPS RIVERS WELL BELOW
ACTION STAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 76 52 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 57 79 68 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 76 50 78 61 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 74 48 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 76 50 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 79 51 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 75 60 77 70 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...REESE
SHORT TERM...REESE
LONG TERM....REESE
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...REESE
FIRE WEATHER...REESE
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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