156
FXUS62 KTAE 171129
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
629 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO MOVES EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW EASTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSITIONING INTO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH THE ONLY FORECASTS CONCERNS BEING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
RIDGING ALOFT WILL QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE
AREA AS LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, DEEPENING CONSIDERABLY WITH
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST. FURTHER
SOUTH, THE TROPICAL REMNANTS OF SARA WILL PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE
COLD FRONT AND PHASE IN WITH IT. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN BE
TRANSPORTED NORTH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF
2-2.2" WHICH WOULD PUT THIS WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR ALL
RECORDED PWATS FOR THE AREA FOR THIS TIME. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WITH
HIGH POPS, AN ATTENDANT FLASH FLOOD RISK APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
HAS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRETY OF OUR FORECAST AREA COVERING SW GA, SE
AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND IN A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE WEATHER, IT WILL BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT. IF THE WARM FRONT WERE TO REMAIN
OVER OUR WATERS, THEN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF OUR INLAND AREAS POSING NO THREAT. HOWEVER, IF IT WERE TO
ADVANCE NORTH, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE SOME MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
OVER THE AREA, THOUGH IT WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED AS INSTABILITY
WOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS TO TAPER
OFF AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE
IS CURRENTLY LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS EVENT.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER
WILL FOLLOW UNLESS YOU STRONGLY DISLIKE COLD WEATHER. THIS APPEARS
TO BE OUR FIRST TASTE OF FLORIDA FALL WEATHER AS A COLD AIRMASS
FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME OF OUR
NORTHERNMOST SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES SEEING HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DIP INTO THE 40S WITH THE
COLDEST EVENING APPEARING TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S FOR OUR FL COUNTIES
AND THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR OUR SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO FINALLY SEE A SIGNIFICANT DIP DROPPING ALL THE WAY INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AS THE WEEK DRAWS TO AN END.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THERE
WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY
FOG AT ABY/VLD/TLH THROUGH 14Z. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD ON
MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
AN EASTERLY TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE BREEZE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE FRESHENING AHEAD OF AN ARRIVING COLD
FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WILL INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR WATERS.
WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITHIN AND NEAR THESE STORMS. GUSTY WINDS
OVER OUR WATERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS. ONLY FIRE CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE LOW DISPERSIONS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP ON MONDAY AND THEN INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES
IN ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS
IS DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM SARA
GETTING ABSORBED INTO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SLIDING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1" TO 3" IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES SHOW
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 5%) OF EXCEEDING 4" OF RAIN
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA.
CONSIDERING MOST OF OUR CLIMATE SITES AVERAGE LESS THAN 4" FOR THE
MONTH OF NOVEMBER, ON AVERAGE, THAT'S A PRETTY HIGH CHANCE IN A
24 HOUR PERIOD. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE REALIZED. RIVERINE FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED AS THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL KEEPS RIVERS WELL BELOW
ACTION STAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 77 54 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 60 78 68 / 0 0 0 10
DOTHAN 76 51 78 62 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 74 49 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 76 51 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 79 54 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 75 65 76 69 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...WORSTER
LONG TERM....WORSTER
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...WORSTER
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...REESE
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