902
FXUS62 KTAE 192100
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT AS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ATTENDANT TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST RATES LIKELY
TO RIDE ALONG/SOUTH OF I-10 WHERE THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD RESIDE.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IS ALSO IN PLACE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE EMERALD COAST WHERE BOWING SEGMENTED CELLS
ARE CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARDS THAT WAY. ADDITIONALLY, WITH LARGE
RAIN SHIELDS LIKE THIS, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON GUSTY WIND
POTENTIAL, AS HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW STRONG GUSTS
TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION, BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POTENTIAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE
DECENT MODEL SIGNALS MOSTLY NORTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR ARE THE WINDS, FOR WHICH IF THEY GO CALM CAN SUPPORT
FORMATION PRIOR TO FROPA. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID 60S ARE
FORECAST. COASTAL COMMUNITIES NEED TO ALSO BE VIGILANT FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING, FOR WHICH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
APALACHEE BAY (MORE DETAILS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION). FOR TOMORROW,
RAIN CHANCES & SKY COVER DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
FRONT'S WAKE WITH BREEZY WINDS SHARPLY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NW. THIS
BREEZINESS MAINTAINS HAZARDOUS BEACH & MARINE CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
QUITE A FAIR STRETCH OF WEATHER COMING AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN WEATHER STORY MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY DIP WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT INTO
THE 60S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WHICH IS SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A CHANGE, BEFORE REBOUNDING INTO THE 70S
AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MOIST RETURN IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY, BUT FORECAST IS KEPT DRY FOR NOW
GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY.
THE COMBO OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED WINDS IS INCREASINGLY
FAVORED TO MAKE FOR CHILLY APPARENT TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LOW TO MID-30S POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO COLD WEATHER SHELTERING CONCERNS FOR VULNERABLE
POPULATIONS. WHILE THE WIND DIES DOWN THIS WEEKEND, THAT'S WHEN LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD DIP WELL INTO THE 30S IF MORE FAVORABLE LONG-
WAVE/RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE, WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. WE'VE INCLUDED FROST IN THE
FORECAST ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS, BUT A FREEZE CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, AS THE PROBABILITY OF LOW TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32F
IS AROUND 50% IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE INTO IFR/LIFR AT ALL
TERMINALS AS RAIN MOVES WEST TO EAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL SHIFT TO
WEST/NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT,
AS THE RAIN ENDS. WITH A FRONT IN THE VICINITY, EXPECT FOG
TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH LOWEST VSBYS DENOTED AT DHN AND ECP. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING OF FOG AND CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBYS AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS. IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS WILL SLOWLY LIFT LATE WED
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING, AS NORTHWEST WINDS GUST AROUND 20 KTS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BY LATE WED AFTERNOON, JUST
BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
AT 15Z, AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
25 KTS ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF
A BROAD AREA OF FRONTAL CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENTERING
WATERS ALONG/OFFSHORE THE EMERALD COAST AND HAS SHOWN A HISTORY OF
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS WITH EMBEDDED CELLS EXHIBITING
OCCASIONAL ROTATION. MEANWHILE, NEARBY BUOYS WERE REPORTING A
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS, 6-FT SEAS, AND DOMINANT PERIOD OF 6
SECONDS.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE TRANQUIL BOATING THIS
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS AND WATERSPOUTS. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND FROM
SOUTH TO NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCLUDING A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS. FRESH BREEZES
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER BRIEF LULL DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, WHILE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS PEAKING AT 5 TO 8 FEET JUST OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS (HEAVY AT TIMES) ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE FRONT'S WAKE AS A DRY
AIRMASS BEGINS FILTERING IN VIA NORTHWEST WINDS TOMORROW. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ON THURSDAY
WITH AN INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD 30S ON FRIDAY. FIRE CONCERNS APPEAR
MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POCKETS OF HIGH
AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS TO CONCLUDE THE WORK WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 357 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT HAS LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALREADY, PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAVE RECEIVED BETTEANN 2-3 INCHES OF
RAIN, MAINLY IN SE ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH A LITTLE
MORE ON THE WAY. RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE RAIN FROM THE
WEST AS DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT APPROACHES, BUT NONETHELESS, IT
DOES LOOK LIKE SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING,
THOUGH THIS WOULD HAVE TO BE RATE DRIVEN AND BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
WOULD SEEM TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THE VICINITY OF PANAMA CITY WHERE
THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT WOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FURTHER INLAND DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO RESULT
IN ANY RIVERINE FLOODING IN THE DAYS AHEAD. AND THEN, AFTER THIS
EVENING, THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS, SO NO ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE MIX FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON THE HIGH TIDE SEQUENCE
THIS EVENING AND VERY EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALIGN CLOSE TO OR DIRECTLY WITH HIGH TIDE IN
APALACHEE BAY. WHILE SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING PEAK WATER LEVELS
JUST ABOVE THE 3 FT MHHW MARK, MOST GUIDANCE IS IN THE 2.5-2.8 FT
MHHW LEVELS, SUGGESTING HIGH END ADVISORY IMPACTS IN APALACHEE BAY.
AS SUCH, ENHANCED THE WORDING FOR WAKULLA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES
WHERE WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE
HIGH TIDE AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE WIND. AS WINDS SHIFT TO NW
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WILL END JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF A LOW TIDE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 67 78 46 62 / 90 10 0 0
PANAMA CITY 66 77 47 65 / 80 10 0 0
DOTHAN 63 75 42 61 / 40 10 0 0
ALBANY 64 76 43 61 / 80 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 65 78 45 61 / 90 20 0 0
CROSS CITY 67 80 47 65 / 80 30 0 0
APALACHICOLA 69 78 48 64 / 90 10 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ108-112.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ750-752-770-
772.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
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