796
FXUS62 KTAE 201757
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1257 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A DRIER AIRMASS PROMPTING RAPID
SKY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
NEAR TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST AND MUCH OF THE REGION WILL SEE DRIER
WEATHER MOVE IN BY 9AM EST. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
CLOUDY THROUGH THE MORNING BUT AS WINDS SWITCH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. BY THIS
EVENING MUCH COOLER AIR WILL STEADILY STREAM INTO THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER ONE LAST WARM AFTERNOON IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S, EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP QUICKLY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SHORT & LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE START OF THIS TERM WILL USHER IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE DAY
PRIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD FROM THE WEST
WITH CLEARING SKIES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 50S FOR OUR SE AL AND SW GA COUNTIES
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE LOW 40S AND MID-UPPER 30S BY
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.
DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE SURFACE
WINDS, THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO BE AROUND FREEZING IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR OUR NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES. REGARDLESS,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK.
A GRADUAL WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF
THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS RETURNING TO THE 70S AND MORNING
LOWS IN THE 50S. RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD ARE
NEGLIGIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU THE REGION WITH NW WINDS
AND A DRYING AIRMASS FROM WEST TO EAST. LINGERING MVFR CIGS
CONTINUE AT TLH/VLD FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HRS OR SO BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE ARE BREEZY WINDS
SUSTAINED AROUND 12 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 20-22-KT RANGE.
GUSTS SLACKEN SOME TONIGHT EXCEPT INVOF OF VLD. FOR TMRW, NW
WINDS PICK BACK UP BETWEEN 10-12 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
THE WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) WAS REPORTING A SUSTAINED NW WIND NEAR
15 KTS WITH 4-5-FT SEAS, AND A DOMINANT PERIOD OF 7 SECONDS. THIS
RELATIVE LULL IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS A COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE WATERS RAMPS UP THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
ROUGH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET AND NORTHWEST SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 25
KTS CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF LULLS IN THE WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN PICKING UP AGAIN IN THE EVENING. THIS
WEEKEND, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO CALM AND RETURN TO 1-2 FOOT
SEAS BY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
DRIER WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 15 OR 20 MPH AS SKIES CLEAR. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE. PLENTY OF
SUN AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD ALLOW HIGH DISPERSIONS AND OCCASIONAL
WIND GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REINFORCING
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES LOW AND WIND/WIND-GUSTS ELEVATED. RECENT RAINS SHOULD
KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW DESPITE THE DRIER AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
TE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST/9AM
CST AS CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED VIA NW WINDS AND THE FALLING WATER
LEVELS. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL, THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY CONDITIONS,
SO NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE MIX FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 78 46 62 44 / 10 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 78 48 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 75 42 61 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 77 43 60 40 / 10 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 79 45 62 42 / 10 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 82 48 65 45 / 30 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 78 49 63 49 / 10 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST /1 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
UPDATE...MOB/TAE
NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...MONTGOMERY
LONG TERM....MONTGOMERY
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...MONTGOMERY/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...DOBBS
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/IG3
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