275
FXUS62 KTAE 210230
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE USHERING IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS.
THE ONLY UPDATE THIS EVENING WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO BETTER MESH
WITH CURRENT WIND, TEMPERATURE, AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. THIS DOES NOT
AFFECT FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE MIDST OF PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW A SHARP NW-SE MOISTURE GRADIENT CHARACTERIZED
BY 50S DEW POINTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND 60S TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF IT.
SATELLITE TRENDS AFFIRM A RAPIDLY DRYING AIRMASS WITH NEARLY ALL
REMAINING CLOUDS CLEARING THE I-75 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE EASTERN FL
BIG BEND.
COLD-AIR ADVECTION DRIVES TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 40S LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING (ISOLATED UPPER 30S). THESE READINGS A
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND THE DOTHAN-
BLAKELY-ALBANY AREA, WHICH INTRODUCES COLD-WEATHER SHELTERING
CONCERNS FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
AN EXPANSIVE, NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY WILL REINFORCE THE COOL & DRY CONDITIONS BY KEEPING
THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 60S DESPITE
PLENTIFUL (ALBEIT LATE NOVEMBER) SUNSHINE - SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
LARGE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MEANDER EAST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL BE UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SOUTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH A QUICK MOVING DRY FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THEN ELONGATE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VERY DRY AIR WITH PWATS LESS THAN
1/2 INCH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND THEN SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE HIGH CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE TRI-STATE REGION AND
RETURN FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE MID LEVEL STEERING PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL, OFFERING
UP A MODEST WARMUP AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE
MIDWEST AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD. LITTLE, IF ANY, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES ACROSS
THE WIREGRASS AND FLINT RIVER VALLEY TO LOW 60S AT THE COAST AFTER
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGHS SATURDAY
WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO FRIDAY. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING THIS PERIOD WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 30S THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WIREGRASS AND FLINT RIVER
AREAS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOW 30S IN THE MORE
OUTLYING AREAS. LOWS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL RESIDE IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT
WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S MONDAY MORNING AND IN THE 50S TUESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND AN EARLIER COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SO CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE, AND THE DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE OF FOG. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20+ KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY MORNING SOON AFTER
THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 930 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WITH NEAR-GALE GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING, BEHIND A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG BREEZES WILL KICK
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THEN BREEZES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WHILE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ELONGATE INTO A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY, SO A TURN TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
OCCUR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A DRY, BUT COOL POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE TOMORROW AND HELP
BOTTOM OUT RH VALUES TO THE 20S. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAINS
OF 1-3 INCHES OBSERVED YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT AND FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH LOW SUN ANGLES, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE MINIMAL OUTSIDE OF HIGH AFTERNOON DISPERSIONS.
DISPERSIONS AND RH IMPROVE THEREAFTER WITH GRADUAL SLACKENING OF NW
WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 45 61 43 60 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 47 63 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 40 61 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 42 63 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 44 64 41 59 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 45 66 45 64 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 48 63 48 63 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ FRIDAY FOR GMZ730-
750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...HANER
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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