799
FXUS62 KTAE 280538
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
138 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER TODAY AT THE BEACHES.
- A STRONG, REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN ITS
WAKE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO UPDATE
CURRENT CONDITIONS. ADDED IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE BIG BEND REGION
TONIGHT, AND MAY EXTEND NORTHWARDS TOWARDS THE WIREGRASS REGION
CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS MORNING'S STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. CLOUD COVER FROM WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY STICK
AROUND INTO TUESDAY, CAUSING HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TO STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OFFSHORE WINDS BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ONSHORE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN TODAY'S WITH
THE PARENT TROUGH AND AIR MASS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION
ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT AS WELL, ALTHOUGH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT ENOUGH
TO MAKE A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT APPEARS UNLIKELY.
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND
FRONT, WITH EVEN HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FAILING TO WARM OUT OF
THE 60S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY
NIGHT THANKS TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD
SEE SOME AREAS WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE FIRST TIME
THIS SEASON. A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
IFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR AT ABY/DHN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING, EXCEPT PREVAILING LIFR AT VLD.
FOR TODAY, CIGS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MVFR BY LATE MORNING. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AT ECP WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AT DHN/TLH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, MVFR
CIGS PREVAIL AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS AT DHN/TLH,
WHICH WILL TEND TO BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN VFR TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND MVFR TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH, THE TIMING
OF THE TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO VFR, AND THE EXTENT OF VFR
IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. SIMILARLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING THE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
BORDERLINE EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. AN EVEN STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BLAST
ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BY STRONG TO POSSIBLY NEAR-GALE NORTHWEST BREEZES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND COASTAL BIG BEND HAVE RECEIVED
AROUND 1 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR THIS MORNING, WITH AREAS
ELSEWHERE SEEING 0 TO ABOUT 0.5 INCH. AS THIS RAIN-MAKING SYSTEM
EXITS LATER TODAY, A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR. A STRONGER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON
THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL TOTALS WERE OBSERVED FROM TODAY'S
SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS CLOSER TO THE COAST. AREAS ALONG
THE COAST MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT. AREAS FURTHER INLAND, PARTICULARLY SE AL, THE FL BIG BEND,
AND S GA, LIKELY DID NOT SEE ENOUGH RAIN TODAY TO MAKE ANY
MEANINGFUL PROGRESS TOWARDS DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT. WHILE THERE IS
SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 70 53 74 49 / 0 0 30 10
PANAMA CITY 72 56 74 52 / 0 10 60 0
DOTHAN 67 52 68 46 / 0 10 50 10
ALBANY 65 51 71 46 / 0 0 50 10
VALDOSTA 67 52 76 47 / 0 0 30 10
CROSS CITY 75 53 78 50 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 72 58 73 54 / 0 0 30 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...MONTGOMERY
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...MERRIFIELD
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