039
FXUS62 KTAE 280628
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
228 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN ITS WAKE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A COOLER AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY'S COLD
FRONT WITH LOW CLOUDS STICKING AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN
THE 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA, WITH UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
ON WEDNESDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER, THERE
WILL BE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RECOVERY AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, SO THE END RESULT IS LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS OPPOSED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL
MOVE IN STARTING THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
60S FOR MOST AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT
THANKS TO FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD SEE
SOME AREAS WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON. A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL HAVE
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
IFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR AT ABY/DHN IS
EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING, EXCEPT PREVAILING LIFR AT VLD.
FOR TODAY, CIGS SLOWLY RISE THROUGH MVFR BY LATE MORNING. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTN AT ECP WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR AT DHN/TLH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, MVFR
CIGS PREVAIL AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS AT DHN/TLH,
WHICH WILL TEND TO BE THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN VFR TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND MVFR TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH, THE TIMING
OF THE TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO VFR, AND THE EXTENT OF VFR
IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. SIMILARLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING THE TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR AT THE TERMINALS
THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLY NEAR-GALE NORTHWEST BREEZES ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH SURF IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE
ST JOSEPH PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR
ON THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S
FOR MANY LOCATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF RAINFALL TOTALS WERE OBSERVED FROM MONDAY'S
SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS CLOSER TO THE COAST. AREAS ALONG
THE COAST MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS A
RESULT. AREAS FURTHER INLAND, PARTICULARLY SE AL, THE FL BIG BEND,
AND S GA, LIKELY DID NOT SEE ENOUGH RAIN TODAY TO MAKE ANY
MEANINGFUL PROGRESS TOWARDS DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT. WHILE THERE IS
SOME RAIN IN THE FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT, HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AND WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. NO HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 70 53 74 49 / 0 0 30 10
PANAMA CITY 72 56 74 52 / 0 10 60 0
DOTHAN 67 52 68 46 / 0 10 50 10
ALBANY 65 51 71 46 / 0 0 50 10
VALDOSTA 67 52 76 47 / 0 0 30 10
CROSS CITY 75 53 78 50 / 0 0 10 0
APALACHICOLA 72 58 73 54 / 0 0 30 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page