068
FXUS62 KTAE 290600
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN ITS WAKE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A GALE WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN GULF WATERS
FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS
TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR GULF WATERS DUE TO WINDS GREATER THAN
20 KNOTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THE MAIN CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WERE ADJUSTING POPS, SKY
COVER, AND T/TD BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. RAIN CHANCES WERE
TRIMMED BACK TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE CURRENT HRRR - NOW CLOSER TO 14Z AT OUR
CENTRAL TIMEZONE COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS BLANKETING THE
ENTIRE NECESSITATED INCREASING SKY COVER, WHICH IS DEPICTED BEST
BY THE HRRR. LOCAL CAMS ARE HAVING A DECENT HANDLE ON TEMPERATURE
& DEW POINTS, SO LEANED ON THAT GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY CLOCK AROUND TO BEING SOUTHERLY FOR A FEW
HOURS TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS BRIEF
WINDOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS OUR FL
COUNTIES AND PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN GA, WITH DEW POINTS
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON, ITS PROXIMITY TO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH AN LLJ OF AROUND 35-50 KTS. GUSTY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS PBL EDDIES/MIXING AND
CONVECTION LEAD TO SOME OF THESE 850MB WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. THE FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
NARROW/SKINNY LEADING TO MINIMAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL BE FULLY OUT OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPS TO THE NW AND THE WARMEST TEMPS TO THE SE. EXPECT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
FAIRLY BENIGN DRY AND COOL TO COLD CONDITIONS FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS IN FULL SWING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS APPEAR IN THE WESTERN GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE
THIS LOW ENDS UP GOING, STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SEE
HOW WE'LL END UP IMPACTED, IF AT ALL, FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GRADUALLY WARM UP FROM GENERALLY THE LOW TO
MID 60S ON THURSDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY MONDAY. SIMILARLY,
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ON THURSDAY WARM
UP INTO THE LOW 50S BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK BLANKETING ALL TERMINALS WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS IN THE 1500-2000-FT RANGE THRU TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ABY/VLD DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FOR
WHICH A TEMPO GROUP WAS INTRODUCED TO ACCT. TODAY, A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH AN ABRUPT AFTN
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF, TO WESTERLY
BEHIND IT (WESTERLY). THE FORMER IS FCST TO BE SUSTAINED 12-15 KTS
- GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS. CLOUDS THEN LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG TO POSSIBLY GALE-FORCE WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A GALE WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR WATERS TOMORROW. LIKEWISE, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN WATERS TOMORROW. HIGH
SURF IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE ST JOSEPH PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR
MANY LOCATION ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 309 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK,
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 49 67 43 / 30 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 52 67 47 / 60 0 0 0
DOTHAN 64 46 62 39 / 50 0 0 0
ALBANY 67 47 63 41 / 50 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 72 47 67 42 / 30 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 74 49 70 43 / 20 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 53 67 48 / 30 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ735.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...IG3/LF
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
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