866
FXUS62 KTAE 290621
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
221 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN ITS WAKE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN GULF
WATERS FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS. OTHERWISE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR GULF WATERS DUE TO WINDS GREATER THAN 20
KNOTS.
- HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED FOR THE ST JOSEPH PENINSULA OF GULF COUNTY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURF AS HIGH AS 7
FEET.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT THE BEACHES. A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT, BUT THE LACK OF
ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS TO THE NW AND THE
WARMEST TEMPS TO THE SE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 40S TO NEAR 50.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STARTING
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT THANKS TO FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME AREAS WITH LOWS
WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME GUIDANCE
DROPPING A STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH RAIN,
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRY. THE NBM POPS ARE
CURRENTLY LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE
WETTER WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
AN EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK BLANKETING ALL TERMINALS WILL MAINTAIN
MVFR CIGS IN THE 1500-2000-FT RANGE THRU TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ABY/VLD DURING THE PRE-DAWN HRS FOR
WHICH A TEMPO GROUP WAS INTRODUCED TO ACCT. TODAY, A STRONG
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WITH AN ABRUPT AFTN
WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO SE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF, TO WESTERLY
BEHIND IT (WESTERLY). THE FORMER IS FCST TO BE SUSTAINED 12-15 KTS
- GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS. CLOUDS THEN LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH FREQUENT GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS, MAINLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA. A GALE WARNING IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR WATERS TODAY.
LIKEWISE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
EAST OF APALACHICOLA. HIGH SURF UP TO 7 FEET IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
THE ST JOSEPH PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON THURSDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATION
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
MINIMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 71 49 67 43 / 30 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 70 52 67 47 / 60 0 0 0
DOTHAN 64 46 62 39 / 50 0 0 0
ALBANY 67 47 63 41 / 50 10 0 0
VALDOSTA 72 47 67 42 / 30 10 0 0
CROSS CITY 74 49 70 43 / 20 10 0 0
APALACHICOLA 72 53 67 48 / 30 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 6
PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ735.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...IG3/LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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