427
FXUS62 KTAE 291727
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
127 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN ITS WAKE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR WESTERN GULF
WATERS FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 35
KNOTS. OTHERWISE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR GULF WATERS DUE TO WINDS GREATER THAN 20
KNOTS.
- HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED FOR THE ST JOSEPH PENINSULA OF GULF COUNTY
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURF AS HIGH AS 7
FEET.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. A LINE OF
SHOWERS IS PUSHING EAST NEAR PENSACOLA, WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN A
FEW WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ALL OF THAT
IS HEADING EAST TODAY WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER ON THE WAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ONSHORE WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST NEAR 40 MPH AT THE BEACHES. A BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE FRONT, BUT THE LACK OF
ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS TO THE NW AND THE
WARMEST TEMPS TO THE SE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 40S TO NEAR 50.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STARTING
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN LOWER ON FRIDAY NIGHT THANKS TO FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME AREAS WITH LOWS
WELL INTO THE 30S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON. A SLOW BUT STEADY
WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME GUIDANCE
DROPPING A STRONG UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH RAIN,
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DRY. THE NBM POPS ARE
CURRENTLY LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE
WETTER WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A COLD FRONT. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH THE RAIN. OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS
ARE FORECAST TO LINGER UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER-LOW SWIRLS OVERHEAD LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL
BRING A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS TO MOST TAF SITES.
MODERATE TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED AHEAD OF
THE FRONT BEFORE TURNING WESTERLY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING IT. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SLACKEN SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AND
TURNING MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH FREQUENT GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS, MAINLY WEST OF APALACHICOLA. A GALE WARNING IS
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR WATERS TODAY.
LIKEWISE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS
EAST OF APALACHICOLA. HIGH SURF UP TO 7 FEET IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
THE ST JOSEPH PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COLDER AIR ON THURSDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR MANY LOCATION
ON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
MINIMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DROUGHT CONDITIONS
WILL THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 73 48 66 43 / 30 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 72 53 68 47 / 60 0 0 0
DOTHAN 66 46 62 40 / 60 0 0 0
ALBANY 69 45 64 41 / 50 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 74 45 66 42 / 40 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 76 48 70 44 / 30 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 73 54 67 47 / 40 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ108-112-
114-115.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ108-112-114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ730-755-765-
775.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ735.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ751-752-770-772.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...REESE
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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