981
FXUS62 KTAE 300534
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
134 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR IN ITS WAKE. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
- A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
OUR WESTERN GULF WATERS FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR GULF WATERS DUE TO WINDS
GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS.
- HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED FOR THE ST JOSEPH PENINSULA OF GULF
COUNTY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SURF AS HIGH
AS 7 FEET.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WERE REQUIRED. THE STRONG
COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH ITS LOCATION ROUGHLY
ALONG THE LOWER I-75 CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE SE FL BIG BEND AS OF
ABOUT 2Z. MUCH OF THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE
PARENT FRONTAL CYCLONE SPINNING OVER TN, SO WE WILL TEMPORARILY BE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES BEFORE A DECK OF MID-TO-LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS
FILTERS IN FROM THE MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. COOL-AIR ADVECTION
YIELDS A FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS MINT SPREAD OF MID TO UPPER 40S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ELEVATED WINDS AMIDST THICKER CLOUD
COVER PRECLUDES LOWER READINGS, THOUGH THE FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES
ARE SLATED TO BE CLOSER TO THE LOW 40S.
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
TODAY'S COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE. DRY AND BENIGN CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION CURRENTLY WILL BEGIN TO
EASE AS THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THUS, BY FRIDAY WE'LL START TO SEE WINDS BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IF NOT NEARLY CALM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE'LL SEE OUR NEXT POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF STATES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BEING THE MAIN
DIFFERENTIATOR. THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BE A GULF LOW JUST
OFFSHORE MOVING EASTWARD. THESE SYSTEMS GENERALLY STRUGGLE TO PUSH
THE WARM FRONT INLAND, AS THE WARM FRONT GETS PINNED TO THE
COAST. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS IS THE CASE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW LOOKS TO PASS RIGHT OVERHEAD,
THIS COULD BE AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM. THE LLJ LOOKS TO BE AROUND
35-45 KTS, VEERING WITH HEIGHT, THUS IF THE WARM FRONT CAN MANAGE
TO PUSH INLAND THE POTENTIAL TO SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
INCREASES. STAY TUNED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO SEE HOW THE
FORECAST REFINES FURTHER.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE THE COOLEST TOMORROW AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PREVAILS. DAY TIME HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S TOMORROW GRADUALLY WARMING UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND AS TEMPS GENERALLY
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEN
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ECP, TLH, AND VLD. FOR ABY AND DHN,
LOW CLOUDS LURKING TO THE NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST OVER
THESE TERMINALS WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT FROM
AROUND 07-09Z TO AROUND 20Z TODAY; CONFIDENCE MEDIUM AT BEST
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING RETURN OF VFR AND FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THRU THE PERIOD
WILL GUST AROUND 20 KT FROM LATE THU MORNING THRU THE AFTN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
THE EXISTING GALE WARNING FOR WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA IS SET
TO EXPIRE AT 3Z WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST TOMORROW OUTSIDE OF ST ANDREWS BAY. LATE-EVENING BUOY
OBSERVATIONS WERE REPORTING NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF APALACHEE BAY THIS
EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS, MAINLY WEST OF
APALACHICOLA IN ITS WAKE. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR WATERS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. LIKEWISE, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS EAST OF
APALACHICOLA. HIGH SURF, UP TO 7 FEET, IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE
ST JOSEPH PENINSULA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST WIND AND MUCH COOLER AIR ON
THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
NEARLY NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE
ARE CURRENTLY NO FLOODING CONCERNS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL
THEREFORE PERSIST AND/OR WORSEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 43 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 47 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 61 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 63 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 66 42 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 70 44 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 48 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ730-755-
765.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ735.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR GMZ751-
752-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...OLIVER
LONG TERM....OLIVER
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...OLIVER
FIRE WEATHER...OLIVER
HYDROLOGY...OLIVER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page