960
FXUS62 KTAE 301456
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1056 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO AROUND 40,
INCLUDING SOME 30S FOR THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS GREATER THAN
20 KNOTS.
- HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE ST JOSEPH
PENINSULA OF GULF COUNTY TODAY WITH SURF AS HIGH AS 6 FEET.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1048 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, MOSTLY TO KEEP CLOUD COVER IN
THE FORECAST FOR A LITTLE LONGER THIS MORNING. THIS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST ACROSS OUR
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES BUT HAVE LEFT THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN PLACE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
A COOLER AIRMASS WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING
WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SOME UPPER 30S ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE SHOULD SEE A
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS DIPPING WELL DOWN INTO THE 40S ONCE AGAIN, WITH EVEN SOME
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERENCES
IN THE GUIDANCE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE
SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST GUIDANCE WOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER MOISTURE
RETURN AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN, WHILE THE WEAKER AND FURTHER
EAST GUIDANCE WOULD KEEP US MAINLY DRY. THE NBM POPS ARE CURRENTLY
LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, INDICATING THAT A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES
STILL KEEP THE SYSTEM FAIRLY WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER, THE
FORECAST IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2K FT (MVFR CIGS) CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING AND ARE BEING HANDLED POORLY BY GUIDANCE. SOLID
MVFR CIGS AT ABY, DHN, AND ECP ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT TLH
AROUND 11Z, BUT REMAIN NORTHWEST OF VLD ATTM. RETURN TO VFR
IS FORECAST AROUND 15Z AT TLH, 18Z AT ECP, AND AROUND 20Z AT
ABY; CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM WITH RESPECT TO TIMING RETURN OF
VFR AND FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
THRU THE PERIOD WILL GUST AROUND 20 KT FROM LATE THU MORNING
THRU THE AFTN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER SEAS PREVAILING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 30S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. HIGH DISPERSIONS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY THE TIME THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BECOME LOWER ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 214 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM INCREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
NO FLOODING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 66 43 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 67 47 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 61 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 63 42 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 66 42 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 70 44 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 48 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ730-755-
765.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR GMZ751-
752-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
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