911
FXUS62 KTAE 301744
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE IN STORE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO AROUND 40,
INCLUDING SOME 30S FOR THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK; RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ONE
HALF INCH OR LESS WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR
WEST MAINTAINING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS. LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN NORMALLY
COOLER AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FROST
IN SOME OF OUR ALABAMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S SATURDAY AS
WINDS CLOCK TO THE NORTHEAST.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST US. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY THEN OFF THE EAST
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE CONSISTENT EC, GLOBAL MODELS, AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH YIELDS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
IT SEEMS ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO SECTIONS; ONE
REMAINING NORTH IN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OTHER OVER THE GULF
WHICH WILL SPIN UP A GULF LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. THIS
LEADS THE TRI STATE REGION TO BE SPLIT FROM THE MAIN AREAS OF
RAINFALL AND MAINTAINING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES THIS CYCLE IS
REASONABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY TO
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFTING TO BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
HAVE LEFT TEMPO GROUPS FOR VFR FROM 19Z TO 23Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE FURTHER AFTER 23Z WITH MORE WIDESPREAD VFR
LIKELY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, OCCASIONALLY
TO 20 OR 25 KNOTS SHOULD DEVELOP AND/OR CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET WITH
LIGHTER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT IN OFFSHORE LEGS
AND NEARSHORE WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF APALACHICOLA TONIGHT AS
WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING IN APALACHEE BAY THIS EVENING THEN THE REST OF THE
WATERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
NORTHEAST GULF LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE CLOCKING TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30%
RANGE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE RECOVERING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW 40% RANGE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED UP UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES, THOUGH ONLY LOW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THAT SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
DRY MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST US. RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LOW AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 43 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 47 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 39 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 40 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 41 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 43 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 48 67 50 68 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ108-112-115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ114.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ730-755-
765.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR GMZ751-
752-770-772-775.
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...DOBBS
MARINE...SCHOLL
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page