149
FXUS62 KTAE 310057
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE IN STORE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING TO AROUND 40,
INCLUDING SOME 30S FOR THE COLDEST LOCATIONS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK; RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW AND AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ONE
HALF INCH OR LESS WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
THE MAIN CHANGE TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WAS ADJUSTING SKY COVER
BASED ON THE LATEST TREND OF POST-FRONTAL STRATUS PUSHING SE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FL STATE LINE. CLOUDS CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THE HEELS OF DRY-AIR ADVECTION VIA NW WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
UNSURPRISINGLY TUMBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS IF THE BOUNDARY CAN DECOUPLE.
SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SATURDAY. COOL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IS TO OUR
WEST MAINTAINING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS. LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW
MORNINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN NORMALLY
COOLER AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FROST
IN SOME OF OUR ALABAMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST GEORGIA LOCATIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S SATURDAY AS
WINDS CLOCK TO THE NORTHEAST.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST US. MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL DIG SOUTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY THEN OFF THE EAST
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MORE CONSISTENT EC, GLOBAL MODELS, AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH YIELDS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
IT SEEMS ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO SECTIONS; ONE
REMAINING NORTH IN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OTHER OVER THE GULF
WHICH WILL SPIN UP A GULF LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF. THIS
LEADS THE TRI STATE REGION TO BE SPLIT FROM THE MAIN AREAS OF
RAINFALL AND MAINTAINING 20-30% RAIN CHANCES THIS CYCLE IS
REASONABLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED AS WINDS CLOCK AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY TO
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
A POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK WILL MAKE FOR MVFR OR LOW-END VFR
CIGS (3000-4000 FT RANGE) OVER THE NEXT COUPLE TO FEW HRS ACROSS
ALL TERMINALS. EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED THESE LOW
CLOUDS VERY WELL, SANS THE RAP13, WHICH WAS USED FOR TIMING. SKIES
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH NW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
BUOY 42012 OFF ORANGE BEACH WAS REPORTING ONLY 2-FT SEAS THIS
EVENING, WHICH PROMPTED THE CANCELLATION OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY OVER WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE
LEGS BETWEEN MEXICO BEACH AND SUWANNEE VALLEY. THE LATTER IS TIED
TO BUOY 42036 OFF WEST TAMPA REPORTING 7-FT SEAS DESPITE
SLACKENING WINDS.
CWF SYNOPSIS: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW ONLY IN EFFECT
TONIGHT IN OFFSHORE LEGS BETWEEN MEXICO BEACH AND THE SUWANNEE
RIVER UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY FOR LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN WATERS WEST OF APALACHICOLA
TONIGHT AS WELL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING IN APALACHEE BAY THIS EVENING THEN THE REST OF
THE WATERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
NORTHEAST GULF LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US THROUGH
SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT
THE REGION LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE CLOCKING TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30%
RANGE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS BEFORE RECOVERING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW 40% RANGE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED UP UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES, THOUGH ONLY LOW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THAT SYSTEM AT THIS POINT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
DRY MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST US. RAINFALL CHANCES ARE LOW AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
AVERAGE GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR LESS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED
THIS PERIOD.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 43 69 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 47 68 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 39 67 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 40 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 41 69 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 44 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 48 67 50 68 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
FLZ108-112-115.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ FRIDAY FOR GMZ772-
775.
UPDATE...IG3
SHORT TERM...SCHOLL
LONG TERM....SCHOLL
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...SCHOLL/IG3
FIRE WEATHER...SCHOLL
HYDROLOGY...SCHOLL
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