267
FXUS62 KTAE 311032
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
632 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON ARE IN STORE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. WHERE RAIN OCCURS, IT WILL GENERALLY BE ONE-QUARTER
INCH OR LESS, WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL PREVAIL.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN TX EARLY
THIS MORNING TO GA/SC ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALREADY PUSHED OUT THE STUBBORN POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS FROM RECENT DAYS FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST,
LEAVING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL MEAN A WARMING OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TODAY INTO THE UPPER 60S. THEN TONIGHT, THE CLEAR SKIES, DRY AIR
MASS, AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL BE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 40S WILL BE MOST
COMMON, WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN OUR MORE NOTORIOUSLY COLD POCKETS,
SUCH AS BLAKELY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN U.S.
GREAT PLAINS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND, PASSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE TRI-STATE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY
MONDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT, WE WILL FAIL TO GET A MOIST
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF. THEREFORE MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING WITH THIS FRONT, WITH THE MOST LIKELY RANGE OF PEAK PW
VALUES IN THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE. RAINFALL WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
LACK. DIFFERENT GUIDANCE MEMBERS MAINLY DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT
THERE WILL BE RAIN AT ALL. THE MINORITY OF GUIDANCE THAT DOES SHOW
RAIN KEEPS IT LIGHT, MAINLY ONE-QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NO COLDER THAN WHAT WE ARE ALREADY
OBSERVING THIS WEEKEND.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE RAIN-FREE WITH A WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY. A STRONG 500 MB HIGH OVER TX ON
MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
WITH EXPANSION EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TURN NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY TO AN EVEN MILDER EASTERLY DIRECTION
ON WEDNESDAY. THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER, WITH RAIN-FREE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
AT 2 AM EDT, BUOY 42036 WAS OBSERVING 6-FOOT SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS. THE TURN TO NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A STEADY
DECREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS TODAY, DROPPING INTO THE 1-2 FOOT RANGE
BY THIS EVENING. THE NEXT DETERIORATION OF MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
COME ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AS NORTHERLY BREEZES
FRESHEN BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
FROM CWF SYNOPSIS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TODAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING PUSHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CLOCK AROUND NORTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS BECOMING EASTERLY
ON SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY WHILE
CLOCKING AROUND NORTHEASTERLY, AS THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT,
SO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AIR MASS WILL
MOISTEN A LITTLE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, SO RH WILL RISE
SOME ON SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE RAIN WILL MOSTLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO AMOUNT
TO A WETTING RAIN. NEXT WORK WEEK LOOKS RAIN-FREE, WITH A RISE TO
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND MIDWEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT, AND IT WILL PROVIDE NO DROUGHT RELIEF.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 68 42 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
PANAMA CITY 68 46 71 51 / 0 0 0 0
DOTHAN 67 40 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
ALBANY 68 40 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
VALDOSTA 68 41 71 41 / 0 0 0 0
CROSS CITY 70 39 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
APALACHICOLA 67 49 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HANER
LONG TERM....HANER
AVIATION...MONTGOMERY
MARINE...HANER
FIRE WEATHER...HANER
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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