092
FXUS62 KTAE 311822
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
222 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON ARE IN STORE AGAIN
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING TO THE MID 30S AND LOWER 40S.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. WHERE RAIN OCCURS, IT WILL GENERALLY BE ONE-QUARTER
INCH OR LESS, WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE ONGOING
DROUGHT.
SHORT TERM & LONG TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS, A DRY AIR MASS, AND CLEAR SKIES WILL COMBINE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR VERY EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A RESULT, FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A
LITTLE BIT AGGRESSIVE ON THE LOWER SIDE, RANGING FROM THE MID 30S
TO THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES. RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND URBAN AREAS
MAY BE CLOSER TO THE MID 40S. TLH AIRPORT HIT 36 DEGREES THIS
MORNING, AND TONIGHT MAY BE EVEN A TAD MORE FAVORABLE FOR COOLING
IF EVERYTHING LINES UP CORRECTLY. ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT
IS SOME PATCHY FROST IN AREAS FORECAST TO BE 37 DEGREES OR LESS,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ACTUALLY PRETTY LOW ON IT OCCURING.
HOWEVER, WITH IT POTENTIALLY BEING THE FIRST BIT OF FROST THIS
SEASON WE WANTED TO GO AHEAD AND ERR ON THE SAFE SIDE SO FOLKS CAN
BE PREPARED WITH THEIR PLANTS AND SUCH.
A BIT OF WARMING AND MOISTENING IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL IS LIKELY. THEREFORE, WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY NIGHT'S FRONT, BUT CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS COLD AS THEY HAVE BEEN YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
TUESDAY ONWARD ANOTHER WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS FORECAST TO
BE UNDERWAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY WILL
GRADUALLY CLOCK AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO NORTHEASTERLY
ON SATURDAY, PERHAPS BECOMING EASTERLY SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE ON TUESDAY WHILE CLOCKING AROUND NORTHEASTERLY, AS
THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. A COOL
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT,
SO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN A LITTLE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, SO RH WILL RISE SOME ON SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THE RAIN WILL MOST
LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO AMOUNT TO A WETTING RAIN. NEXT WORK WEEK
LOOKS DRY, WITH A GRADUAL RISE TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND
MIDWEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ANY RAIN THAT OCCURS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY WILL NOT BE
HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT, AND IT WILL PROVIDE NO DROUGHT RELIEF.
VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TAE/LOCALDROUGHT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
ONGOING DROUGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER, SPOTTERS ARE ALWAYS
ENCOURAGED TO SAFELY REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WHEN THEY
OCCUR BY CALLING THE OFFICE OR TWEETING US @NWSTALLAHASSEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TALLAHASSEE 42 72 45 71 / 0 0 10 20
PANAMA CITY 46 71 50 71 / 0 0 10 20
DOTHAN 39 69 43 69 / 0 0 0 10
ALBANY 40 70 41 69 / 0 0 0 10
VALDOSTA 38 72 41 71 / 0 0 10 20
CROSS CITY 39 74 44 74 / 0 0 0 20
APALACHICOLA 49 69 52 68 / 0 0 10 20
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ112-114.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MERRIFIELD
LONG TERM....MERRIFIELD
AVIATION...SCHOLL
MARINE...MERRIFIELD
FIRE WEATHER...MERRIFIELD
HYDROLOGY...HANER
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